40 for the next 40

A SAMPLING OF THE DRIVERS OF CHANGE THAT WILL SHAPE OUR WORLD
BETWEEN NOW AND 2050

FOREWORD

We are in the midst of an accelerating, revolutionary transformation. Change is happening everywhere – in technology, business, government, economics, organizational structures, values and norms – and consequently affects how we live, work and play. As industry and government leaders, we must acknowledge that this change demands new ways of governing and of running our organizations. The ways in which we communicate and interact with each other will be different. The methods through which we gain and process information will be different. The means by which we earn and spend money will be different. Through the culmination of these and other changes, organizations will be radically transformed.

This change is not unexpected. Forty years ago, Alvin and Heidi Toffler recognized that the pace of environmental change was rapidly accelerating and threatened to overwhelm the relatively slow pace of human response. Through Future Shock, the Tofflers persuaded us to consider the future by imagining drivers of change and preparing for a wide range of resulting future environments.

Now as we look towards the next 40 years, we continue to use these time tested methodologies, our founders’ legacy to Toffler Associates, for understanding the forces of future change. We focus on the convergence and interdependence of seemingly orthogonal aspects to connect the dots and develop strategies for future success. In this way, we recognize, as the Tofflers did, that preparation is the best defense against the future.

Here is a sampling of 40 drivers of change that – we believe – will shape the future.

POLITICS

. CHANGES IN LEADERSHIP AROUND THE GLOBE WILL CAUSE CHURN IN
RELATIONSHIPS AND OBJECTIVES

. Just in the next three years, approximately 80 nations will hold presidential elections.
. The number of women in national leadership positions will increase at an unprecedented
rate.
. Religious groups will push to get into governments around the world.


. NATION-STATE POWER AROUND THE GLOBE WILL BE INCREASINGLY “MULTI-
POLAR” IN TERMS OF WHO WIELDS IT AND WHERE

. The economies of Brazil, China and India will become less US and EU centric.
. Foreign Direct Investments will shift toward developing economies.


. THE GROWING POWER OF NON-STATE ACTORS WILL CREATE PERVASIVE
CHALLENGES TO NATION-STATE POWER AND INFLUENCE

. Private sector actors, NGOs, religious groups, “hyper-empowered” individuals whose
resources can exceed those of states, and a wide range of transnational networks – both licit
and illicit – will create a radically different future.
. The most pressing geopolitical threat will not be al Qaeda, but its franchises, the wider
network-of-networks spawned and inspired by its ideology.
. “Hyper-empowered” individuals and groups will continue to gain access to knowledge,
technology and finances previously attainable only by nation-states.

. THE NUMBER AND VARIETY OF NON-STATE ACTORS WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY

. NGOs will be the fastest growing non-state actors, and will be key to governmental and
industry strategies and solutions.
. Governments’ engagement with non-state actors will intensify, shaping issues from security
to development.


. THE GROWTH OF SMART POWER INSTRUMENTS REFLECTS THE COMPLEXITY OF
SECURITY CHALLENGES

. Military might will seldom be used in isolation again.
. Challenges such as political instability, radicalism, economic have-nots, population
migrations and mobility, plus widespread youth unemployment will make hard power
insufficient by itself.


. THE MIDDLE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE “WICKED” SECURITY ISSUES WITH
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

. The Middle East will witness accelerating reversion to a tangle of religions, sects and
ethnicities.
. The nature of the balance between Middle Eastern countries will be interrupted by new
forms of instability.

. PHILANTHRO-CAPITALISTS WILL INCREASINGLY WIELD INFLUENCE AND POWER
ON A GLOBAL SCALE

. Organizations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will eventually have more
influence than national and multi-national organizations when it comes to education and
disease eradication in third world nations.
. The number of philanthro-capitalists will increase, due in no small part to Bill Gates’ efforts
to get billionaires to give away half their fortunes in their lifetimes.

. ROGUE NATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GEO-POLITICAL WILDCARDS

. The world stage will continue to have a very small number of players who act irrationally,
such as North Korea and Iran, but they will have a significant impact on regional and global
political issues.
. A true test for political leaders will be in how they handle relationships with these nations,
and to what extent they allow them to control geo-political agendas.

TECHNOLOGY

. THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN NETWORKS FOR INNOVATION WILL ALLOW RAPID
ACCESS TO SPECIALISTS ACROSS THE GLOBE

. Open, collaborative innovation paradigms will enable companies to grow innovation
capabilities beyond the limits of internal R&D teams.
. Technologies will not be developed in-house. Successful organizations will become adept at
integrating large problem-solver networks, linking “answer seekers” with “problem solvers”
across the globe to rapidly harness the brainpower of international experts.

. NEW PROCESSING AND STORAGE METHODS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE
HOW WE HANDLE INFORMATION

. The world will enter the “Petabyte Age,” where data saturation is the norm.
. Widespread quantum computing will be a realistic possibility in the next 10-15 years, which
could lead to either the rebirth – or the end – of encryption as we know it.


. ADVANCEMENTS IN DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
DEFENSE, SECURITY AND SAFETY LANDSCAPE

. Advances in biotechnology will lead to bio-implants that provide enhanced human
performance.
. Advances in ubiquitous sensors will result in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and
meteorological sensors in everyday person devices, such as cell phones.
. Advances in “wild card” technologies will lead to the ability to “hack” people via neural,
computer or other means to attack cognitive function neutral energy.

. MASS PRODUCTION WILL INCREASINGLY BE REPLACED WITH ON-DEMAND,
CUSTOM MANUFACTURING OF COMPLEX PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

. Small, agile companies will continue to bring personal attention to customers, allowing
them to compete effectively with large manufacturers.
. Compact fabricators and raw material supplies will replace stockpiling repair parts for
maintenance.


. RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW
WE TARGET, MONITOR AND CURE DISEASES

. Rapid biotechnology advances will lead to the ability to remotely trigger automatic
production of immune response and medicines in the body via implants or other means.
. Rapid technological advances in ubiquitous sensors will lead to the improved ability for bio-
health monitoring.

. MOLECULAR NANOTECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING WILL HAVE AN IMMENSE
IMPACT ON SOCIETY, BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY

. Molecular manufacturing – the ability to construct powerful, atomically precise products at
an exponentially increasing pace – will create disruptions, such as an unprecedented
invasion of privacy resulting from cheaper, smaller, more capable and widely available
surveillance devices.

. VALUABLE INFORMATION RISKS COLLECTING “CYBERDUST”

. In some corners, including the military and intelligence agencies’ collection of full motion
video (FMV), data is being collected faster than it can be analyzed.
. New automated tools need to be developed to replace what is now a human-driven task; if
they aren’t, then valuable information will risk collecting “cyberdust,” sitting on a server
without being analyzed because of an increasing backlog.

. COMPANIES WILL INCREASINGLY CREATE VALUE BY BEING “CONNECTORS”

. Companies will increasingly follow the Apple/iPhone model of creating value, not by
creating products (in Apple’s case, apps), but by hosting the marketplace and charging to
connect consumers to producers.

SOCIAL

. MASSIVE GROWTH IN URBANIZATION AND GLOBAL MIGRATION WILL DRIVE THE
EMERGENCE OF MEGACITIES

. In the US, Chicago, Washington, D.C./Baltimore, San Francisco and possibly Dallas and/or
Philadelphia will join New York and Los Angeles as megacities, based on natural population
growth.


. MIGRATION, URBANIZATION AND POPULATION GROWTH WILL CHANGE
RELIANCE UPON LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE

. Global population growth will increase demand for scarce natural resources and strain
infrastructures (water, food, energy, etc.).

. POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AROUND THE GLOBE WILL CREATE
FINANCIAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STRESSES ON NATIONS

. Developed countries will be populated by a mix of older natives and younger immigrants.
. Urbanization and the youth population bulge will change the make-up and nature of
developing nations.

. AGING BABY BOOMERS AND INCREASED LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL DRIVE CHANGE
TO FEDERAL SPENDING PRIORITIES

. Social Security and Medicare will no longer exist as we know them today.
. Spending on long-term care services for the elderly will increase 2.5 times, nearly
quadrupling in constant dollars to $379 billion by 2050. Spending to cover these services
will not just come from the government, but from NGOs and business.

. SOCIAL NETWORKING WILL DRIVE NEW MEANS OF INFLUENCE

. New relationships will break down previously protected borders and provide new
intelligence sources.
. Government and business will reach out to previously unconnected contacts, exposing new
risks.

. CONSUMERS WILL DRIVE CHOICE

. Communication technologies and social networks will become increasingly influential,
deciding factors in product and service offerings.
. Consumers or customers will be the most important source of innovation within
organizations. The main driving force for “prosumption” – the unpaid output that we all
produce every day – will be the technology-enhanced interaction between employees,
suppliers, partners and customers.

. IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR ORGANIZATIONS TO HIDE IMPROPER ACTIONS

. Rapidly growing amounts of information, and the proliferation of professional/consumer
grade tools for analysis and interpretation, mean previously empowered individuals will
now be able to see what organizations are doing, and promote that information to others.
. Consumer opinion of corporate responsibility practices will influence product/service
selection and brand switching.

. GLOBAL RELIGIOUS DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND
SECURITY ENVIRONMENTS OF THE FUTURE

. Changes in global religious demography, such as the rapid growth of Christianity in the
global South and increased Muslim immigration to Western nations, will shape public
attitudes and government policies.
. Growth in religious believers will have an increased impact, with major policy and security
implications around the world.

ECONOMICS

. CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO POSITION ITSELF AS A LONG-TERM ECONOMIC
POWER-PLAYER AROUND THE GLOBE

. China teams with other emerging countries (Brazil, India and China) to influence currency
utilization.
. China partners with other countries (Venezuela and Africa) to meet energy needs and to
import a wide range of raw materials.

. SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE RESHAPED BY PROLONGED ECONOMIC GROWTH

. Sustained economic expansion will create renewed global influence.
. Bad Actors, specifically Venezuela, will challenge US influence in the region.

. SMART POWER WILL COUNTER THE INFLUENCE OF GROWING ECONOMIES

. Developed countries will pursue the use of smart power to promote economic development
and nation-building, increasingly important strategies for national security.
. Soft power will get “smart” as knowledge and communications amplify coordination, with
countries and NGOs providing assistance.

. MOBILITY IN THE GLOBAL MARKET WILL BECOME A PRIORITY

. Safe, efficient transportation will be crucial to the global economy as it lies at the core of
international trade. Future economic activity will drive unprecedented demand for global
transportation services.
. The strong demand for faster, cheaper delivery of goods will bring about larger container
ships in the shipping industry and spur further improvements to the Suez and Panama
Canals.
. Corporations will become nimble enough to maneuver in and out of other countries very
quickly.


. KNOWLEDGE WILL BE A MAJOR SOURCE OF CAPITAL

. The ability to exploit information across traditional boundaries will be a great boon to
developing countries as they come to recognize the importance of knowledge capital.
. Recognizing the importance of knowledge capital, developing countries will begin to place
priority emphasis on education and knowledge transfer.
. The US will make international education a top priority, encouraging Americans to travel to
other countries and see themselves as part of the global community.

. HIGH COSTS OF “OBSOLEDGE” WILL IMPACT GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

. Every chunk of knowledge has a limited shelf life, becoming, at some point, obsolete –
“obsoledge.”
. Accelerating change speeds up the rate at which knowledge becomes obsoledge. Every
passing semi-second, accuracy of our knowledge about our investments, our markets, our
competition, our technology and our customers will diminish.
. Obsoledge costs will be in the form of degraded decision-making.

. WORK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO FILL WHATEVER TIME AND SPACE IS
AVAILABLE

. Work will continue to be driven by knowledge. The increased knowledge content of work
means that communication and the speed of knowledge transfer will be increasingly critical
to the success of business.

. WHEN IT COMES TO WORK, “WHERE” WILL MATTER LESS AND LESS

. The proliferation of high speed internet connections, the growth of low-cost
videoconference technology, and the ability to rapidly and easily move around the globe via
interrelated networks of airlines will allow white-collar workers to complete their work
anywhere in the world, freeing them from their cubicles.
. The major challenge this will create is for local and national governments to play catch-up
with regard to modernizing tax law.

. TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES WILL HELP RESHAPE GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER

. New abilities to identify resource deposits and extract them at low cost will give increased
economic power to previously poor or ignored nations.


ENVIRONMENT

. COMPETITION FOR ENERGY WILL INTENSIFY, SHIFTING STATE POWER

. Energy resources will be used as leverage in broad economic warfare.
. Energy competition will be multi- and cross-regional. Iran and Russia will use energy to
increase power.
. Governments will use diplomatic means to blur the lines between energy and other key
issues.


. RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES WILL IMPACT THE PRODUCTION,
CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE OF ENERGY

. Advances in nanotechnology will lead to a significant proliferation in diversity of high-
powered, portable energy generation and storage devices. This will spur the use of
renewable electricity generation, which was previously prohibited due to storage
deficiencies.
. Alternatives to oil and natural gas will create losers in a post-petroleum world, including
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and smaller Gulf states.


. CLIMATE CHANGE WILL SERVE AS A CONFLICT ENABLER IN FRAGILE NATIONS

. Climate change will influence all industries and sectors of society, in part by affecting the
infrastructures on which they rely.
. A rise in sea levels and the resulting loss of territorial land will cause a conflict from
displaced populations around the world.
. Buried Arctic mineral wealth and oil fields will be made more accessible by melted seas,
fueling conflict.

. CHINA’S MONOPOLY CONTROL OF THE WORLD’S RARE EARTH METALS MARKET
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON US NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE
ECONOMY

. The seventeen elements that make up a group known as rare earth metals will remain
critical to the performance of hundreds of products and technologies.
. The US will be reliant on China’s metals to produce such things as high-performance
weapons components, internal guidance systems, microwave communications systems,
radars, the motors and generators that power aircraft and ships, wind turbines, high-
performance batteries, hybrid cars, superconductors, computer chips and digital displays.


. RAPID NANOTECHNOLOGY ADVANCES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
CHEAP WATER DESALINIZATION/PURIFICATION TECHNOLOGY

. Advances in water filtration will solve the growing need for drinkable water, significantly
reducing global conflict between water-starved nation-states.
. Better water filtration will eliminate many forms of disease from developing countries,
spurring their development.

. AS ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS GROWS, SO DOES INDIVIDUAL AND
COLLECTIVE ACTION

. Individuals will increasingly start and maintain small gardens to reduce their dependence on
large food manufacturers and distributors.
. Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) will continue to grow in prominence and
acceptance in urban areas for both individual consumers and restaurants.

. GLOBAL COMPANIES WILL HAVE EMBRACED THE “FOURTH BOTTOM LINE”

. Beyond simply reducing harmful outputs, organizations will improve and strengthen the
resiliency of the environment, helping ensure that it can withstand and thrive in the face of
the threats – both natural and man-made – that accelerating change creates.

Source - TOFFLER ASSOCIATES

Bright future for Agri related companies

Agriculture is hugely cyclical. And unlike an industrial cycle that can last over a period ranging from five-eight years, agriculture cycles are usually dependent on the yearly crop patterns and good weather. However, crops are perishable in nature and storage losses can be high, especially in developing countries where infrastructure is in its infancy. Therefore, the vagaries of investing in agri-commodities are reasonably high, even though demand is steadily on an uptick. Do note that volatility in the shorter term can be the undoing of a trade that started off successfully.

Companies engaged in processing agri commodities or trading them have shown their ability to manage these cycles reasonably well and thus, may be good vehicles for investors to play the agri theme. Companies act as efficient asset managers for particular crops. The shorter-term risks of the agri cycle are mitigated by companies through their ability to add value to the end product. They also depend on scale to arbitrage cross-border differences, wherever available. But what's most important is their availability of organised finance to hold inventory and ride out a down cycle. Simply put, there are three main components of the agri business chain — ones that make agriculture inputs, enablers and then processors, which put together would involve companies that make agrochemicals, soft commodities, micronutrients, fertilisers, or ones that have agri land banks and livestock and help in farm mechanisation. Seeds and irrigation too would fall in this segment.

But how can you make the best of this investing opportunity? By knowing how the profits pools in the value chain shift at different points in the price cycle. Companies that are ‘enablers' generally tend to benefit at both extremes; therefore, they would necessarily need to be a constant feature in any portfolio playing this chain. As for processors, high profitability and higher prices of end products helps create cash flows. This in turn finds its way down to creating the demand for agricultural inputs for the next season or two.

The demand picture for agricultural products is pretty well documented. Between India and China in the next 10 years we would have 50 per cent of the world population to feed. This remains a challenge, though both these countries have a rising per capita income. Agriculture as a percentage to total GDP in India is about 16 per cent. Any further decline would destabilise the food security for the nation. However, if this number rises, that it would attract a lot of capital to the sector.

The demands on the existing land under cultivation can only step up from hereon. Besides, there is no alternative to productivity and technology enhancements that are finding their way into the business. All these lead to higher capital intensity of the business, which could mean a dramatic shift towards corporatisation. Rapidly changing technologies, from fuel efficient farm equipment to higher yielding and pest-resistant seeds are making way for a new generation of companies. These are developments, we haven't seen before. The sum and substance is that agri business offers a large universe of traded stocks. While food inflation is working in favour of the already profitable industry, over time it will work in favour of every company in the agri-business value chain. And that's a bigger opportunity
Source - BL- Naval Bir Kumar

Germany wants talented Indian workers & Students

Germany wants talented Indian workers and appropriate visas for that will not be a problem despite stringent immigration rules, the chief minister of the European country's second largest state has said. "We are fascinated by the energies of young Indian people. We want them to be a part of Germany's growth. India and Germany share common values on strategic issues and have strong democracy and rule of law," said Niedersachsen Chief Minister David McAllister. "We are also interested in more Indian investment coming in to Germany, including my own state," McAllister, who is the political head of Germany's second largest state by area with Hanover as capital, told IANS in an interview. The chief minister, who is all of 39 years and represents a state that is also called Lower Saxony, said the visa issue was a part of the ongoing discussions for the proposed India-European Union free trade agreement.

"We certainly hope the norms will be liberalised, once the free trade agreement is signed. The real concern, actually, for Germany is the flow of cheap labour from India. We are not concerned at all about skilled workers."

"Apart from trade and economic ties, we also want Indian students to come to my country and study there. For the matter of convenience, we are now focusing on English as the medium of instruction at our universities," he said.

"And in the case of students, there is no problem at all in getting visas."
Source - ET