Saturday, November 26, 2005

Fuel Ethanol

Since the 1973 oil embargo, Brazil has battled to achieve energy independence, replacing gasoline with ethanol, an alcohol distilled from sugarcane. Today, Brazil is the world's largest producer of sugar and ethanol. Brazilian cars are also equipped with engines that can run on ethanol and gasoline, or any blend of the two. Known as "flex-fuel" cars, they have dazzled the market since their launch by Volkswagen in March 2003. Last month, they captured 66.7% of new car sales. All the major Brazilian car manufacturers now make them. In Brazil ethanol, or "alcool" as it is called, costs only $2 at the pump, compared to $4 for a gasoline-ethanol blend (Brazil no longer sells regular unblended gasoline). And while ethanol-powered cars consume 25% to 30% more fuel per mile than gasoline cars, the average motorist can save about $820 a year by switching to ethanol. In Brazil, ethanol is now being used in aviation. Small planes, like crop dusters, are switching to ethanol because it is a superior fuel and is more widely available, even in remote parts of the country, than conventional aviation fuel.

Surprisingly, flex-fuel technology has been around in the U.S. longer than Brazil. Most cars are already built to run on a 10% ethanol blend, known as E10, though few owners know it. Some 4.5 million cars in the U.S., mostly SUVs, can handle up to 85% ethanol, or E85. But less than 150,000 were sold as alternative-fuel vehicles.
That may now be changing. In September 2005, Ford Motor announced it was stepping up its production of ethanol vehicles for the North American market.
Unlike Brazil, U.S. producers make ethanol from corn, which is a far less efficient source, yielding four times less energy than sugar. There are currently 93 ethanol plants in the United States, with another 24 under construction. Production is expected to rise to 5 billion gallons by the end of next year.

It is quite a welcome change that today bio fuels are being seriously viewed from the multidimensional perspective of depleting fossil fuel resources, environmental health, energy security, agrarian economy and new avenues of gainful employment. This means that the coming years will witness greatly enhanced activities and investments in new technologies and infrastructure for cost-effective production and efficient utilization of bio fuels, which will put this industry on a strong footing. Indian Railway the largest diesel consumer in India is conducting trial on Trains. The acres of land they own can be used to cultivate bio fuel plants. If Railways use 5% blend, for all their diesel engines, annual savings in their fuel bill will be to the tune of Rs.150 Crores.

Being the largest and the lowest-cost producer, Brazil could emerge as a global supplier. In the 2004-05 season (May-April), ethanol output is expected to be 16 billion litres, of which 2 billion will be exported. The price at which Brazil sells its ethanol can be competitive at global prices of $22 a barrel. With crude selling much over that mark – it's over $55 a barrel now – ethanol has an edge. The tide will turn in Brazil's favour once Petrobras steps in. The conglomerate is, as an Indian embassy official in Sao Paulo puts it, "ONGC, IOC, OIL, HPCL and BPCL all rolled into one". Having helped the country become self-sufficient in oil and gas, it's looking seriously at ethanol. Petrobras top brass revealed says the company plans to spend $330 million to build four new pipelines to transport ethanol to domestic ports. It may tie up with China to build ethanol-handling logistics there to handle the latter's imports. By 2008, Petrobras hopes to export 8-9 billion litres annually, compared to a target of 2 billion litres this year

China has set up the world's largest distillery based on corn. But it's trying tapioca as a raw material, as Brazil is with bagasse (residual after cane crushing). Thailand and India nurture ethanol ambitions too, but more for domestic use. EU, which will have to stop sugar subsidies due to WTO compulsions, may protect its farmers' interests by diverting cane for ethanol. But most consumers may turn net importers – the US may buy 8-10 billion litres annually in the next few years, Japan 14 billion litres by 2011, and EU 8.5 billion litres by 2006.

Since ethanol is only a petrol substitute, several nations are working to develop bio-diesel from different sources like soyabean, mustard and rapeseed. India is trying a local plant, jatropha curcas, which grows in abundance here. At the same time, developed nations are also hedging their bets on hydrogen as the next big viable, clean alternative. The US wants a full-fledged hydrogen economy by 2015, while Japan plans to have 5 million cars running on the fuel by 2020

The use of ethanol, bio-diesel and hydrogen will increase rapidly. Each nation will have to find its own mix, based on political, diplomatic and economic factors. Japan and EU may wish to increase their dependence on hydrogen. The US may rely on a mix of ethanol and hydrogen. So may China and India. And bio-diesel will coexist in all these countries.

For every barrel of ethanol that is produced, 1.2 barrels of petroleum are displaced at the refinery. Ethanol won’t replace 100% of the fuel we use, but it is a critically important component in India's energy-supply portfolio

PRAJ INDUSTRIES – a leading supplier of fuel ethanol plants stands to benefit from the increased interest in ethanol production the world over. Alfa Lavel – India is another supplier fuel ethanol plants.

Balance Sheet of Life

Our Birth is our Opening Balance
Our Death is our Closing Balance
Our Prejudiced Views are our Liabilities
Our Creative Ideas are our Assets
Heart is our Current Asset
Soul is our Fixed Asset
Brain is our Fixed Deposit
Thinking is our Current Account
Achievements are our Capital
Character & Morals, our Stock-in-Trade
Friends are our General Reserves
Values & Behavior are our Goodwill
Patience is our Interest Earned
Love is our Dividend
Children are our Bonus Issues
Education is Brands / Patents
Knowledge is our Investment
Experience is our Premium Account
The Aim should be to Tally the Balance Sheet Accurately and
The Goal should be to get the Best Presented Accounts Award

Thursday, November 24, 2005

Himatsingka Seide - A textile company to watch in the post quota regime

Himatsingka Seide Limited (HSL) is India’s largest manufacturer and exporter of natural silk fabrics used primarily in furnishings and dress materials
Incorporated in 1985 as a 100% export oriented unit, the Company has consciously targeted the upper end of the market – with customers located in the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, South America and Australia – and positioned itself as a company focusing on high quality as well as consistency and innovation in design.
For over ten years they have worked with well known furnishing and fashion houses from these countries. HSL located in Bangalore operate one of the largest integrated ISO 9001 certified mills in the world After a share split and 1:1 bonus, Rs 5 share is now available at 149. On Nov 10th Azim Premji bought around 4% shares of HSL at Rs 136.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

PRAJ Industries

The world is experiencing an energy crisis. The search of alternative fuel is on and looking at the opportunity in biofuel sector, the central government has taken an initiative to promote this sector in a big way by introducing 5% ethanol blended fuel. Investment in Ethanol manufacture will increase. The future of sugar industry is also closely tied with the production of value added products like ethanol.

PRAJ Industries is well placed to utilize this opportunity. Praj offers innovative solutions to significantly add value in alcohol and brewery technology and related wastewater treatment systems for customers in India and around the world. Praj is a Knowledge based company with expertise and experience in Bioprocesses and engineering. It delivers Know how, License, engineering design, plant & equipment, project management, commissioning and customer care and turnkey projects.

PRAJ was established in 1984 by Mr. Pramod Chaudhari with the objective of providing cutting edge solutions to the DISTILLERY INDUSTRY. IIT Bombay conferred the “Distinguished Alumni Award” of the year 2005 on Pramod Chaudhari, Chairman Praj Industries. This distinction has been awarded to Pramod Chaudhari for his achievements in taking Indian technology and business global as well as for his commitment to Innovation

In 1991, Praj established an R & D Center named MATRIX. Many new systems have been developed in this R & D Center, with the result, Praj has seven patents to its credit.

Praj's operations cover three continents including Asia, Africa and South America

CMP – Rs 85
Expected Market Price June 06 – Rs 110 (30% appreciation in 6 months)

Monday, November 21, 2005

Peter Drucker on Leadership

Peter F. Drucker, the revered Austrian-born management guru whose thinking influenced generations of business people worldwide over seven decades, has died at age 95. Though he coined such terms as knowledge workers and management by objective, he was celebrated for the clarity of his analysis and historical perspective rather than for any particular management theory that bore his name
Drucker spoke with Forbes publisher Rich Karlgaard. in one of his last interviews
What Needs to Be Done
Successful leaders don't start out asking, "What do I want to do?" They ask, "What needs to be done?" Then they ask, "Of those things that would make a difference, which are right for me?" They don't tackle things they aren't good at. They make sure other necessities get done, but not by them. Successful leaders make sure that they succeed! They are not afraid of strength in others. Andrew Carnegie wanted to put on his gravestone, "Here lies a man who knew how to put into his service more able men than he was himself."
Check Your Performance
Effective leaders check their performance. They write down, "What do I hope to achieve if I take on this assignment?" They put away their goals for six months and then come back and check their performance against goals. This way, they find out what they do well and what they do poorly. They also find out whether they picked the truly important things to do. I've seen a great many people who are exceedingly good at execution, but exceedingly poor at picking the important things. They are magnificent at getting the unimportant things done. They have an impressive record of achievement on trivial matters.
Mission Driven
Leaders communicate in the sense that people around them know what they are trying to do. They are purpose driven--yes, mission driven. They know how to establish a mission. And another thing, they know how to say no. The pressure on leaders to do 984 different things is unbearable, so the effective ones learn how to say no and stick with it. They don't suffocate themselves as a result. Too many leaders try to do a little bit of 25 things and get nothing done. They are very popular because they always say yes. But they get nothing done.
Creative Abandonment
A critical question for leaders is, "When do you stop pouring resources into things that have achieved their purpose?" The most dangerous traps for a leader are those near-successes where everybody says that if you just give it another big push it will go over the top. One tries it once. One tries it twice. One tries it a third time. But, by then it should be obvious this will be very hard to do. So, I always advise my friend Rick Warren, "Don't tell me what you're doing, Rick. Tell me what you stopped doing."
The Rise of the Modern Multinational
The modern multinational corporation was invented in 1859. Siemens invented it because the English Siemens company had grown faster than the German parent. Before the Second World War, IBM was a small maker, not of computers, but of adding machines. They had one branch in England, which was very typical for the era. In the 1920s, General Motors bought a German and English and then Australian automobile manufacturer. The first time somebody from Detroit actually visited the European subsidiaries was in 1950. A trip to Europe was a big trip. You were gone three months. I still remember the excitement when the then head of GM went to Europe in the 1920s to buy the European properties. He never went back.
21st Century Organizations
Let me give you one example. This happens to be a consulting firm headquartered in Boston. Each morning, between 8 A.M. and 9 A.M. Boston time, which is 5 A.M. in the morning here in California and 11 P.M. in Tokyo, the firm conducts a one-hour management meeting on the Internet. That would have been inconceivable a few years back when you couldn't have done it physically. And for a few years, I worked with this firm closely and I had rented a room in a nearby motel and put in a videoconferencing screen. Once a week, I participated in this Internet meeting and we could do it quite easily, successfully. As a result of which, that consulting firm is not organized around localities but around clients.
How To Lead a 21st Century Organization
Don't travel so much. Organize your travel. It is important that you see people and that you are seen by people maybe once or twice a year. Otherwise, don't travel. Make them come to see you. Use technology--it is cheaper than traveling. I don't know anybody who can work while traveling. Do you? The second thing to say is make sure that your subsidiaries and foreign offices take up the responsibility to keep you informed. So, ask them twice a year, "What activities do you need to report to me?" Also ask them, "What about my activity and my plans do you need to know from me?" The second question is just as important.
Prisoner of Your Own Organization
When you are the chief executive, you're the prisoner of your organization. The moment you're in the office, everybody comes to you and wants something, and it is useless to lock the door. They'll break in. So, you have to get outside the office. But still, that isn't traveling. That's being at home or having a secret office elsewhere. When you're alone, in your secret office, ask the question, "What needs to be done?" Develop your priorities and don't have more than two. I don't know anybody who can do three things at the same time and do them well. Do one task at a time or two tasks at a time. That's it. OK, two works better for most. Most people need the change of pace. But, when you are finished with two jobs or reach the point where it's futile, make the list again. Don't go back to priority three. At that point, it's obsolete.
How Organizations Fall Down
Make sure the people with whom you work understand your priorities. Where organizations fall down is when they have to guess at what the boss is working at, and they invariably guess wrong. So the CEO needs to say, "This is what I am focusing on." Then the CEO needs to ask of his associates, "What are you focusing on?" Ask your associates, "You put this on top of your priority list--why?" The reason may be the right one, but it may also be that this associate of yours is a salesman who persuades you that his priorities are correct when they are not. So, make sure that you understand your associates' priorities and make sure that after you have that conversation, you sit down and drop them a two-page note--"This is what I think we discussed. This is what I think we decided. This is what I think you committed yourself to within what time frame." Finally, ask them, "What do you expect from me as you seek to achieve your goals?"
The Transition from Entrepreneur to Large Company CEO
Again, let's start out discussing what not to do. Don't try to be somebody else. By now you have your style. This is how you get things done. Don't take on things you don't believe in and that you yourself are not good at. Learn to say no. Effective leaders match the objective needs of their company with the subjective competencies. As a result, they get an enormous amount of things done fast.
How Capable Leaders Blow It
One of the ablest men I've worked with, and this is a long time back, was Germany's last pre-World War II democratic chancellor, Dr. Heinrich Bruning. He had an incredible ability to see the heart of a problem. But he was very weak on financial matters. He should have delegated but he wasted endless hours on budgets and performed poorly. This was a terrible failing during a Depression and it led to Hitler. Never try to be an expert if you are not. Build on your strengths and find strong people to do the other necessary tasks.
The Danger Of Charisma
You know, I was the first one to talk about leadership 50 years ago, but there is too much talk, too much emphasis on it today and not enough on effectiveness. The only thing you can say about a leader is that a leader is somebody who has followers. The most charismatic leaders of the last century were called Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Mussolini. They were mis-leaders! Charismatic leadership by itself certainly is greatly overstated. Look, one of the most effective American presidents of the last 100 years was Harry Truman. He didn't have an ounce of charisma. Truman was as bland as a dead mackerel. Everybody who worked for him worshiped him because he was absolutely trustworthy. If Truman said no, it was no, and if he said yes, it was yes. And he didn't say no to one person and yes to the next one on the same issue. The other effective president of the last 100 years was Ronald Reagan. His great strength was not charisma, as is commonly thought, but that he knew exactly what he could do and what he could not do.
How To Reinvigorate People
Within organizations there are people who, typically in their 40s, hit a midlife crisis when they realize that they won't make it to the top or discover that they are not yet first-rate. This happens to engineers and accountants and technicians. The worst midlife crisis is that of physicians, as you know. They all have a severe midlife crisis. Basically, their work becomes awfully boring. Just imagine seeing nothing for 30 years but people with a skin rash. They have a midlife crisis, and that's when they take to the bottle. How do you save these people? Give them a parallel challenge. Without that, they'll soon take to drinking or to sleeping around. In a coeducational college, they sleep around and drink. The two things are not incompatible, alas! Encourage people facing a midlife crisis to apply their skills in the non-profit sector.
Character Development
We have talked a lot about executive development. We have been mostly talking about developing people's strength and giving them experiences. Character is not developed that way. That is developed inside and not outside. I think churches and synagogues and the 12-step recovery programs are the main development agents of character today.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Warren Buffet

Nicknamed the "Oracle of Omaha", Buffett has amassed an enormous fortune from astute investments, particularly through his company Berkshire Hathaway, in which he holds a greater than 31% stake. Warren Buffet adapted Einstein's equation for the theory of relativity
E = MC**2
For Buffett, the success of a business can be predicted from this equation, with changes to what the variables stand for
E = earnings, the lifeblood of a business.
M = management capability.
C = character of the management. Squared.
The emphasis was on “C squared". No matter how skilled the management of a company is, the character of the business leaders is even more important for long-term success.

Warren Buffet's Letters to shareholders
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html